This last few weeks have been quite revealing. The controlled opposition nature of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement has been distilled into a clear liquid. The only problem with that liquid is that it’s poison to conservative activists and the prospect of reigning in an out of control bureaucratic state. All a garbage Republican politico has to do now is paint some MAGA slop over their doorways and the angel of political accountability will pass them over.
In a world where Congressmen, like Chip Roy and Bob Good, are seen as bad people for not kissing the ring, people like Elise Stefanik (Should be D, NY) are seen as leaders. This can’t be allowed to continue if we wish to see any sort of actual American revival.
It’s now easy to see why the electoral cancer that is Donald Trump has gained traction over a competent and effective leader, like Ron DeSantis. The vast majority of Americans don’t want to be citizens. They want to be zoo animals or pets, for lack of a better description. Throw them some food and give them a few toys and they’re happy. Covid proved this to me. People don’t understand that the cheese in the trap is there for reason.
On the political right of today, few are interested in doing hard things, like running a campaign on issues and policy points or actually answering questions from voters (paging Nikki Haley). Heaven help us if we want a competent ballot chasing operation like the Dems have. Trump has enough name ID to get himself and a few establishment wing nuts over the line in primaries, but when it comes to general election outcomes, the GOP is a disaster because of the stink that is transferred from the former president to anyone he’s associated with. Ask Kari Lake what the Governor’s Mansion in Arizona is like, if you don’t believe me. Just because you win a primary doesn’t make you a good politician. It means you found enough people to buy into your male bovine excrement to fill in a bubble for you in a low turnout election.
With no plan on how to run a competent presidential campaign in the face of 91 criminal indictments, I fear that the down ballot consequences of this shortest primary cycle in history will be disastrous. The Republican National Committee is essentially broke, while the DNC is flush with cash and a readymade slew of opposition ads in the can. All they have to do is have someone read Trump’s Truth Social feed on TV and any Democrat with a pulse will beat him. The GOP also has no ballot chasing enterprise in the works. Organizations, like Toilet Paper Turning Point USA say they’re going to step in, but I don’t expect people used to grifting to be able to run a competent ground game. The DNC is well seasoned in areas where the GOP is nonexistent.
We can likely forget holding the US House. With a multitude of resignations and retirement announcements, the GOP House majority is cooked. A toothless new Speaker is doing them no favors, either. We have to concentrate on keeping the few great members of the House in their seats. I think of three, specifically. Chip Roy, of Texas, must keep his seat. His voice is the most important one in DC. Thomas Massie, of Kentucky, must be defended at all costs. He has a Trumpcult nut running against him in the primary. I urge everyone to go to his website and pitch in a few bucks, as I have already done. The last one is the new chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, Bob Good, of southwest Virginia. Trump’s merry band of circus freaks have stood up a primary challenge to him. We need to help him retain that seat. After these, you do you on supporting individual congresscritters (as Chip Roy calls them). We need these three voices in the US House.
In a year where the Senate map should be favorable for Republicans, I can’t see any outcome better than a 50/50 draw. The only sure pick up I see is in West Virginia. Sadly, the likely winner of that race is very likely to the left of the Democrat vacating the seat. Ohio and Montana should be easy pickups, but with the top of the ticket being a mess and the proven over performance of Dems in suburban areas, I wouldn’t bank on any other GOP pickup. One notable senator who is in trouble is Ted Cruz, of Texas. He is within the margin for error of both of his serious Democrat challengers. The Senate is irredeemably broken and a 50/50 split is actually closer to a 95/5 left wing majority. I will keep an eye on Michigan if Justin Amash chooses to run. I have no Senate race to vote on in my state, so I have no dog in this fight.
While all of the above may seem like I’m in doom and gloom mode, I can say that I’m at peace with this election cycle. While I have no one to vote for this cycle at the top of the ticket, this makes it 16 years without a general election presidential vote for me, I see glimmers of hope at the state level. Texas has passed a few good reforms and it looks like Dade Phelan’s political future is on life support. Ron DeSantis, back in Tallahassee, has chosen to step right back in as the leader he’s always been. Iowa is seeing forward progress with this legislative session. Kim Reynolds is stepping up to defend sanity on several social issues, including working to break the gender cult in Iowa.
On the national electoral front, the 2028 presidential election starts the moment the race is called this November, especially if one of the two octogenarians is still taking the oath of office in January fo 2025. I’m not so sure that the Dems won’t replace Biden with someone who can walk in a straight line and read off of a prompter, but that is more likely to happen after his very likely reelection. The more the race is about Trump’s personality, the better for the Dems.
Many people in the political realm call what I just wrote about a horse race analysis. In this case, the horses are on their way to the glue factory. I just pray the nation isn’t in tow.
